How The World Ends

Likelihood is a 0–100 threat index: how plausible it is that this scenario causes a civilization‑scale catastrophe, given what's happening in the world right now. It's a gauge for comparing dangers, not an actuarial forecast.

Baseline. Each scenario starts from an evidence score built from current reporting and expert assessment (snapshot ). Click any row to see the evidence and sources.

Live movement. Your browser pulls data straight from the sources: Polymarket odds on precursor events, Wikipedia attention spikes, Hacker News chatter, plus physical sensors from NOAA, NASA and USGS. When markets move or a topic surges, the board re‑ranks.

Guardrails. Chatter can only nudge a score in proportion to its evidence, so a Halloween zombie craze can't outrank a war. Scenarios with no evidence stay at zero, no matter how good the movie was.